Increase of the Population of England and Wales since 1651
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This and the following chapter are, with slight alterations, reprinted, after revision, from our previous Reports, which are out of print. As the first Census was taken in 1801, no exact account of the population in the earlier periods can be obtained; but various estimates of the population were framed in those times by contemporary writers; and series of returns of baptisms and burials have been preserved in many parishes since 1571. After collating the various sources of information, the following estimates have been framed, which are founded on data that justify us in considering that they represent approximately the population of England and Wales in the middle of each of three centuries. Thus, according to the estimates, the people of England and Wales amounted to more than six
millions in 1751, and to more than eighteen
millions in 1851; they having increased nearly twelve millions
in the hundred years; while the increase of the numbers in the preceding century (1651-1751) was less than one million:
and the numbers can scarcely be wrong either way more than half a million.1
The increase of population in the last four years 1857-61 was as great as the increase from the year 1651 to the year 1751; from the year of the battle of Worcester to the year Arcot was taken by Clive. A comparison of the excess of Baptisms over Burials in 1801-1810 shows that the excess of Baptisms over Burials must be raised nearly one third part
for the births of children who are not baptized to make it equal to the increase of population. Proceeding backwards in this manner from 1791 to 1741, the probable increase of population is obtained for every 10 years; and by referring to the probably deficient registration of baptisms in the earlier period the series is carried back to 1701. TABLE IV—BAPTISMS and BURIALS in ENGLAND and WALES, 1700-1840. TABLE IVa
.—ESTIMATED POPULATION of ENGLAND and WALES, 1701-1791, and ENUMERATED POPUATION, estimated to the Middle of Census Years 1801-1861. 1
See Davenant's Works, vol. ii. p. 175-185. Ed.1771, and the Tables of Baptisms, Burials, and Marriages in the Census Reports, 1811; 1841. The facts on which the population of 1651 is estimated will be found in the Preface to the Enumeration Abstract, 1841, p. 36. By Mr. Rickman's estimate the population of England and Wales was 5,600,517 in 1630; after various corrections we find the population of that year to be 5,466,572, and the population of 1670 to be 5,090,045; we assume that the population of England and Wales was 5,466,572 in 1651.V.—INCREASE OF THE POPULATION OF ENGLAND AND WALES SINCE 1651.
Population in 1651, 1751, 1851, 1861
Middle of the
Years
Estimated Population of
England and Wales
Increase of Population
1651
5,466,572
—
1751
6,335,840
869,268
1851
18,109,410
11,773,570
1861
20,281,587
2,172,177
Increase of population
1857-61. 1651-1751
Years.
Baptisms.
Burials.
Estimated annual numbers of
Years.
Baptisms.
Burials.
Excess of Baptisms.
According to the rites of the Church of England
in each of the Ten years beginning with the years in the last coloumn
A.D.
1700
157,307
187,305
150,521
141,226
9,295
1700
1710
143,735
145,146
151,820
155,551
(deficit-) 3,731
1710
1720
159,906
165,956
163,210
174,268
(deficit-) 11,058
1720
1730
166,514
182,579
170,421
177,655
(deficit-) 7,234
1730
1740
174,327
172,731
180,072
166,376
13,696
1740
1750
185,186
160,020
189,365
160,512
28,853
1750
1760
192,914
161,004
203,171
170,700
32,471
1760
1770
213,427
180,396
220,894
189,372
31,522
1770
1781-1790
†
2,397,139
†
1,885,760
239,714
188,576
51,138
1781
1791-1800
2,617,760
1,954,695
261,776
195,470
66,306
1791
1801-1810
2,878,906
1,950,189
287,891
195,019
92,872
1801
1811-1820
3,255,067
2,009,998
325,507
201,000
124,507
1811
1821-1830
3,753,493
2,462,907
—
—
—
1821
1831-1840
3,965,725
2,934,521
—
—
—
1831
†
The number of Baptisms and Burials in the parishes that made Returns in England and Wales are given in the prefaces to the Population Returns for 1811 and other years; for every tenth year
from 1700 to 1780, and for every year
from 1781 to 1840.
YEARS
(Estimated) Population, including Army, &c. Abroad
Increase in the 10 years preceding
YEARS
(Estimated) Population, including Army, &c. Abroad
Increase in the 10 years preceding
1701
6,121,525
—
The numbers following are deduced directly from enumerations, and estimated to the middle of each of the years.‡
1711
6,252,105
(Increase +)
130,580
1721
6,252,750
+
645
1731
6,182,972
(Decrease -)
69,778
1801
9,192,810
937,193
1741
6,153,227
(Decrease -)
29,745
1811
10,467,728
1,274,918
1751
6,335,840
(Increase +)
182,613
1821
12,190,302
1,722,574
1761
6,720,547
384,707
1831
14,070,681
1,880,379
1771
7,153,494
432,947
1841
16,050,542
1,979,861
1781
7,573,787
420,293
1851
18,109,410
2,058,868
1791
8,255,617
681,830
1861
20,281,587
2,172,177
The method which has been been employed of making the estimates appears, upon the whole, to be better than that of assuming any constantrelation to subsist between the population and the marriages, births, and deaths. The estimates that have been made by others differ somewhat from these for the first forty years; but the excess of Burials
over the Baptisms
in the same parishes during the three years 1710, 1720, 1730, appears to show conclusively that, the population decreased in that period.
‡
The Population will be found to differ slightly, for the years 1S21 and ISM, from that given in Table I.,p. cliv., Appendix to Report, of Population Tables, 1851, Vol. I., relating to Ages and Occupations, &c.